Contact:  Todd A. Berry
608.241.9789 or wistax@wistax.org
September 6, 2007

Since 2000, Wisconsin's Population Growth Moderate
Some Areas Losing Young, While Seniors Surge

MADISON— With population increases ranked 32nd among the states, Wisconsin is growing modestly in an even slower-growing region. As the state’s senior population surges, growth will continue to slow through 2030, with major implications for business, government, and education. These are key findings from "Population changes matter!," a new report from the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance.

New federal data for 2000-06 shows Wisconsin grew 3.6% compared to the U.S. at 6.4%. In the region, most growth was even slower. Illinois grew 3.3% (ranked 36th), Iowa 1.9% (41st), and Michigan 1.6% (44th). Only Minnesota grew faster, at 5.0% (23rd). Nevada led the nation at 24.9%.

Wisconsin’s increases are occurring largely along a "V" running south from the Fox Valley to the Milwaukee suburbs, west to Dane County, and northwest to counties east of the Twin Cities. Just 15 counties account for two-thirds of all population growth in the state. Dane County, for example, accounted for 14.8% of the total net increase, followed by Waukesha (7.4%), Brown (6.4%), and St. Croix (5.6%).

The state’s moderate growth can be attributed primarily to low birth and migration rates. The state reported 435,000 births and 290,900 deaths, for a net "natural increase" (births minus deaths) of 144,100, or 2.7% of the state’s 2000 population (32nd nationally). In-migration was also below average at 1.2% of the 2000 population (30th).

Of Wisconsin’s 72 counties, 20 reported more deaths than births from 2000 to 2007. Adams, Iron, Price, and Vilas counties led this group, with natural losses of 2% or more of their 2000 populations.

Of these 20 counties, 12 also reported high rates of in-migration, usually in vacation destinations with an influx of retirees. For example, Adams ranked 70th on natural increase and 3rd on in-migration; Vilas was 69th in natural increase and 5th for in-migration; and Waushara ranked 57th and 4th, respectively.

"The combination of declining births (and subsequently lower school enrollments) in areas with rising populations of retirees can be politically difficult," said Todd Berry, WISTAX President. "Declining school enrollments lead to tighter state-imposed revenue caps, which in turn, increase the likelihood of new referenda to loosen caps and spend more. At the same time, however, a growing share of voters are childless," he added.

Counties with double-digit rates of in-migration relative to their 2000 populations included Adams (10.9%), Juneau (11.7%), and St. Croix (18.5%). Only six counties had net out-migration, led by Menominee (-7.5%) and Milwaukee (-4.7%). The other four—Clark, Lafayette, Racine, and Taylor— sustained migration losses under 2%.

Forecasting growth from 2000-2030, the Badger State expects a 14.7% overall increase, while the U.S. increase for the same period is projected at 29.2%. Around the region, Minnesota is expected to grow 28.2%, twice as fast as Wisconsin, but Illinois (8.2%), Michigan (7.6%), and Iowa (1.0%) will all lag.

The largest increase in Wisconsin will be among the 65-and-over group, anticipated to grow by 609,672, or 86.8%, by 2030. The next-largest increase is among the 45-64 age group, likely to grow 24.8%. Almost all age groups under 45 are expected to shrink or remain static. As a result of this shift, the state’s median age would rise from 36.0 to 41.6 years by 2030.

Even more significant is the "dependency ratio," which would shrink from 1.40 workers for every dependent in 2000 to 1.17 workers for every dependent in 2030. The "dependency ratio" compares the combined number of youth (under age 20) and seniors (65 or older) to the size of the working-age—or taxpaying—population (20-64 years). The shift would stem mostly from baby-boomer retirements.

According to Berry, "Population is important to labor supply, tax revenues, public service demands, and economic growth—so marketers, educators, politicians, and business leaders need to pay attention to these trends."

For 75 years, the nonprofit, nonpartisan WISTAX has provided Wisconsin citizens with reports on population and other issues that impact public policy.

For a free copy of Focus, "Trends II: Population changes matter!," contact WISTAX by e-mail at wistax@wistax.org; by phone at 608-241-9789; or by mail at 401 North Lawn Avenue, Madison, WI 53704.  o

The Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance, founded in 1932, is the state’s oldest and most respected private
government-research organization. Through its publications, civic lectures, and school talks, WISTAX aims to improve Wisconsin government through citizen education. Nonprofit, nonpartisan, and independently funded, WISTAX is not affiliated with any group—national, state, or local—and receives no government support.

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